Time-Varying Death Risk After SARS-CoV-2-Infection in Swedish Long-Term Care Facilities (preprint)

Importance: The case fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 has been high among residents of long-term care (LTC) facilities. It is important to know if the excess mortality persists beyond the acute infection. Objective: To evaluate whether SARS-CoV-2 is associated with higher mortality after the first month from documented infection. Design: We extended the follow-up period of a previous, retrospective cohort study based on the Swedish Senior Alert register. LTC residents infected with SARS-CoV-2 were matched to uninfected controls using time-dependent propensity scores on age, sex, body mass index, health status, comorbidities, and prescription medication use. In a sensitivity analysis, residents were also matched on geographical region and time of Senior Alert registration. Setting: LTC facilities in Sweden. Participants: 3731 LTC residents with SARS-CoV-2 and 3731 controls (n=3604 in each group in the sensitivity analysis). Exposure: SARS-CoV-2 infection, documented in the SmiNet register (until September 15, 2020). Main Outcome: All-cause mortality over 8 months (until October 24, 2020). Results: The median age was 87 years, and 65% were women. Excess mortality was highest 5 days after documented infection (hazard ratio 19.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 14.6-24.8), after which excess mortality decreased rapidly. After the second month, the mortality rate became lower in infected residents than in controls. Median survival of uninfected controls was 577 days (1.6 years), which is much lower than national life expectancy in Sweden at age 87 (5.05 years in men, 6.07 years in women). During days 61-210 of follow-up, the hazard ratio for death was 0.41 (95% CI, 0.34-0.50) in the main analysis and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.62-0.93) in the sensitivity analysis. Conclusions and Relevance: No excess mortality was observed in LTC residents who survived the acute SARS-CoV-2 infection (the first month). The life expectancy of uninfected residents was much lower than that of the general population of the same age and sex. This difference should be taken into account in calculations of years of life lost among LTC residents.

Temporal trends in hospitalizations and 30-day mortality in older patients during the COVID pandemic from March 2020 to July 2021 (preprint)

Importance: Previous reports have suggested reductions in mortality risk from COVID-19 throughout the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Mortality changes later in the pandemic and pandemic effects on other types of geriatric hospitalizations are less studied. Objectives: To describe the changes in hospitalizations and 30-day mortality in Stockholm for patients 70+ receiving inpatient geriatric care for COVID-19 and other causes. Design: Observational study. For patients 70 or older, we present the incidence of 30-day mortality from COVID-19 in the Stockholm region, in relationship to geriatric hospitalizations and 30-day mortality after admission for COVID-19 and other causes. Setting: Hospitalizations for patients 70+ from geriatric clinics in Stockholm, Sweden hospitalized for COVID-19 or other causes between March 2020 and July 31, 2021, were included. Participants: The total number of geriatric hospitalizations for patients 70+ was 5,320 for COVID-19 and 32,243 for non-COVID-19 causes, corresponding to 4,565 individual COVID-19 patients and 19,308 non-COVID-19 patients. Exposure(s): The date of hospital admission to a geriatric clinic. Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s): 30-day mortality after admission. Results: In patients with COVID-19, the 30-day mortality rate was highest at the beginning of the first wave (29% in March-April 2020), decreased as the first wave subsided (7% July-August), increased again in the second wave (17% November-December), but failed to increase as much in the third wave (11-13% March-July 2021). In non-COVID-19 geriatric patients during the same period, the 30-day mortality presented a similar trend, but with a smaller magnitude of variation (5 to 10%). The number of persons 70 or older testing positive for COVID-19 in Stockholm reached two peaks in 2020 (April and December), fell in January 2021 and then increased again in March-April 2021. Conclusions and Relevance: During the first and second waves, hospital admissions and 30-day mortality after geriatric hospitalization for COVID-19 increased in periods of high community transmission, although the mortality peak was lower in wave 2 than in wave 1. The mortality for non-COVID geriatric cases was lower and more stable but also showed an increase with the pandemic peaks.

Using an electronic frailty index to predict adverse outcomes in geriatric COVID-19 patients: data from the Stockholm GeroCovid study (preprint)

ABSTRACT Background The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) is a strong predictor for worse outcomes in geriatric COVID-19 patients, but it is less clear whether an electronic frailty index (eFI) constructed from routinely collected electronic health records (EHRs) provides similar predictive value. This study aimed to investigate the predictive ability of an eFI in comparison to other frailty and comorbidity measures, using mortality, readmission, and the length of stay as outcomes in geriatric COVID-19 patients. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using EHRs from nine geriatric clinics in Stockholm, Sweden, comprising 3,405 COVID-19 patients (mean age 81.9 years) between 1/3/2020 and 31/10/2021. Frailty was assessed using a 48-item eFI developed for Swedish geriatric patients, the CFS, and Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS). Comorbidity was measured using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). We analyzed in-hospital mortality and 30-day readmission using logistic regression and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). 30-day and 6-month mortality were modelled by Cox regression, and the length of stay by linear regression. Results Controlling for age and sex, a 10% increase in the eFI was associated with higher risks of in-hospital mortality (odds ratio [OR]=2.84; 95% confidence interval=2.31-3.51), 30-day mortality (hazard ratio [HR]=2.30; 1.99-2.65), 6-month mortality (HR=2.33; 2.07-2.62), 30-day readmission (OR=1.34; 1.06-1.68), and longer length of stay ( β =2.28; 1.90-2.66). The CFS, HFRS and CCI similarly predicted these outcomes, but the eFI had the best predictive accuracy for in-hospital mortality (AUC=0.775). Conclusions An eFI based on routinely collected EHRs can be applied in identifying high-risk geriatric COVID-19 patients.

Associations of Health, Lifestyle and Psycho-Social Factors With Sleep Quality During the Early Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Focus on UK Older Adults Deemed Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (preprint)

Background: Sleep quality is crucial for health and wellbeing in all ages and sleep abnormalities may contribute to multimorbidity in older adults. The impact of pandemic-related disruptions to sleep quality in older adults, particularly those deemed “clinically extremely vulnerable” to COVID-19-related complications (COVID-19CEV) remains unknown.Methods: In this cross-sectional study, conducted during the first UK lockdown (April- June 2020), we surveyed 5558 adults aged 50 years and over (of whom 523 met criteria for COVID-19CEV) with assessments of sleep quality, health/medical, lifestyle, psychosocial and sociodemographic factors. We identified associations between these factors and sleep quality and explored interactions of COVID-19CEV status with factors significantly associated with sleep quality to identify potential moderating variables.Findings: 37% of participants reported poor sleep quality which was associated with younger age, female sex and multimorbidity. Significant associations with poor sleep included, among health/medical factors: COVID-19CEV status, higher BMI, arthritis, pulmonary disease, and mental health disorders; .and the following lifestyle and psychosocial factors: living alone, higher alcohol consumption, an unhealthy diet and higher depressive and anxiety symptoms. r Moderators of the COVID-19CEV status - sleep quality relationship included marital status, loneliness, anxiety and diet. Within this subgroup, less anxious and less lonely males, as well as females with healthier diets, reported better sleep quality. Interpretation: Sleep quality in older adults was compromised during the sudden unprecedented nation-wide lockdown due to distinct health/medical, lifestyle and psychosocial factors. Male and female older adults with COVID-19CEV status may benefit from targeted mental health and dietary interventions, respectively. Results inform tailored interventions and policy for older adults deemed COVID-19CEV. Funding Information: This study was sponsored by Imperial College London and partly funded by the ICHT BRC.Declaration of Interests: Dr. Middleton reports clinical trial grants from Janssen R&D, Novartis and Takeda outside the submitted work. All authors declare no competing interests related to this study.Ethics Approval Statement: Data collected as in this study are anonymized and kept strictlyconfidential in accordance with the UK General Data Protection Regulations (2016). The CCRR study was ethically approved by the Imperial College London Joint Research Compliance Office (20IC5942) and by the Health Research Authority (16/EM/0213).